U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Konvektiivne väljavaade)

Day Three

acus01 kwns 231952 
Storm Prediction Center ac 231950 

Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0150 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019 

Valid 232000z - 241200z 

..there is a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms from central 
through northern Mississippi into southwest and south central 
Tennessee and northwest Alabama... 

Threat for a few strong tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and 
isolated large hail should persist through this evening across the 
lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. The most likely 
period for strong tornadoes is expected through 8 PM CST across 
northern Mississippi, southwest and far southern middle Tennessee, 
and northwest Alabama. 

..lower Mississippi through Tennessee Valley region... 

Primary change to previous outlook has been to trim from the west 
behind broken line of storms. The warm sector continues to 
destabilize from northeast la and especially central through 
northern MS where pockets of diabatic warming have boosted 
temperatures into the mid-upper 70s. The special 18z radiosonde observation data from 
Jackson MS sampled the warm sector and indicated around 1000 j/kg 
MLCAPE. Scattered pre-frontal showers and thunderstorms have been 
slow to intensify due to an inversion present around 700mb. However, 
as the primary zone of forcing along the warm conveyor belt shifts 
eastward and interacts with the destabilizing boundary layer, some 
storms should evolve into supercells given favorable wind profiles 
with 60+ kt effective bulk shear and 200-400 m2/s2 0-1 km storm 
relative helicity along the strengthening low-level jet. 

.Dial.. 02/23/2019 

Previous discussion... /issued 1018 am CST Sat Feb 23 2019/ 

..lower MS and Tennessee valleys... 
No change made to previous outlook except behind ongoing convection 
in The Ark-la-tex. Overall forecast scenario is anticipated to 
unfold from midday through tonight. 

A surface cyclone over far northwest OK will translate quickly 
northeastward, reaching southern WI around midnight. The cyclone 
will deepen rapidly in conjunction with an ejecting midlevel 
shortwave trough and the left-exit region of a strengthening (100+ 
kt) mid-upper jet streak. The deepening cyclone will draw the moist 
warm sector northward from the central Gulf Coast states into parts 
of the mid-south to perhaps as far north as the lower Ohio Valley 
later this afternoon/evening to the east of a cold front, as a 50-60 
kt low-level jet shifts across the northern part of the warm sector. 
Marginally severe hail could occur with the stronger elevated storms 
across the mid MS valley, but the primary severe threat is expected 
farther to the south in the warm moist sector. 

Ongoing convection across the Sabine valley into southern Arkansas will 
increase in coverage/intensity as large-scale ascent overspreads the 
northwest portion of the rich moist sector characterized by upper 
60s to lower 70s boundary-layer dew points. The most robust 
insolation appears to be underway downstream of this activity across 
northern la into central/northern MS where surface temperatures 
should warm into the upper 70s. This will support afternoon MLCAPE 
of 1000-2000 j/kg, with only weak convective inhibition. 
Semi-discrete storms are expected within the lingering band of 
ongoing convection, and in the open warm sector, given strong 
deep-layer shear and substantial cross-boundary shear vectors. The 
tornado threat will be greatest from about 20-02z across 
central/northern MS into northwest Alabama and southwest Tennessee. A few strong 
tornadoes appear probable given 0-1 km/effective srh of 300-500 
m2/s2 and effective bulk shear near 60 kt in the rich moist 
environment. Thereafter, storms should weaken by 03-06z, though 
isolated tornado/damaging wind potential could persist into the 
early morning across northeast Alabama/northwest Georgia where storms will 
encounter a remnant wedge front. 


Mesoscale Discussion

acus11 kwns 232035 
sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 232035 

Mesoscale discussion 0127 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0235 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019 

Areas affected...central and north-central MS 

Concerning...Tornado Watch 5... 

Valid 232035z - 232130z 

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 5 continues. 

Summary...a relative weakness in low-level shear has limited 
potential for storm-scale rotation up until now. Low-level shear 
and hodograph enlargement is forecast for the remainder of the 
afternoon into the early evening. A corresponding increase in 
severe risk is expected. 

Discussion...kdgx VAD data through the early afternoon has exhibited 
relatively modest low-level shear (0-1 km srh less than 150 m2/s2). 
Coupled with some weakness in the mid-level lapse rate above 500mb, 
the two factors have combined to limit storm organization in the low 
levels and the severe risk through 200-230 PM CST. However, a 
gradual increase in 700mb flow is expected through 6 PM and 
low-level storm rotation potential is expected to increase 
coincident with the hodograph enlarging and not exhibiting the 
degree of veer-back-veer tendency shown in earlier raobs. As such, 
gradual storm intensification and increase in the severe risk with 
an accompanying threat for tornadoes is expected. 

.Smith.. 02/23/2019 

..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Latitude...Lon 32649088 33898929 33838869 33368850 32399011 32319053 
32369084 32649088