- Täna
- Homme
- Day Three
000
acus01 kwns 200048
swody1
Storm Prediction Center ac 200046
Day 1 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT sun Aug 19 2018
Valid 200100z - 201200z
..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this evening
across the Ozark Plateau vicinity...
...
Thunderstorms may continue to pose a risk for damaging wind gusts
and perhaps a couple of additional tornadoes this evening across
parts of southern Missouri and northern Arkansas.
..01z outlook update...
Models continue to indicate at least some further deepening of a
lower/mid tropospheric cyclone across the northeast Kansas/northwest
Missouri vicinity tonight. This may occur as the stronger of a
couple of mid-level speed maxima, within broader cyclonic mid-level
flow, continues to dig from the Central High plains through the
lower south Central Plains. This is preceded by a bit more modest
speed maximum and associated impulse, which may weaken while
pivoting northeastward through the lower Missouri Valley.
Forcing for ascent and shear associated with the lead impulse are
providing the support for the most significant convective
development this evening, which includes isolated supercells and a
couple of small upscale growing clusters of storms now developing
northeastward across parts of northwest Arkansas and southwestern
Missouri. This activity appears generally focused within lower/mid
tropospheric warm advection along the trailing (southwestern) edge
of rain-cooled air associated with weak preceding convection.
Substantive further modification of the rain-cooled air across
central into southeast Missouri appears unlikely this evening.
However, a boundary layer air mass characterized by high moisture
content and moderately large Cape May remain supportive of
thunderstorms capable of producing strong surface gusts and perhaps
an additional tornado or two east of Springfield MO/Fort Smith Arkansas
through The Fort Leonard wood MO/West Plains MO/Batesville Arkansas/Little
Rock Arkansas areas into the 03-04z time frame.
Otherwise, isolated strong to severe storm development is ongoing
beneath northwest mid-level flow across parts of central Kansas and
to the southeast of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. However, this
activity, and vigorous thunderstorms along a small eastward
advancing cold pool now approaching the Beaufort/Hilton Head Island
area of South Carolina, all seem likely to pose decreasing severe
weather potential within the next hour or so.
.Kerr.. 08/20/2018
$$
Mesoscale Discussion
000
acus11 kwns 192248
sels mesoscale discussion
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 192247
arz000-moz000-200045-
Mesoscale discussion 1324
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0547 PM CDT sun Aug 19 2018
Areas affected...southwest Missouri into northern Arkansas
Concerning...Tornado Watch 343...
Valid 192247z - 200045z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 343 continues.
Summary...the threat of damaging winds and a few brief tornadoes
continues across the watch area.
Discussion...storms continued to develop across southwest MO and
northwest AR, ahead of a weak surface low and near a diffuse warm
front. The latest surface analysis indicates 2 hr pressure falls in
excess of 2 mb, associated primarily with low-level warm air
advection. Hodograph size on the sgf VAD wind profile has gradually
been increasing, now with 0-1 srh in excess of 200 m2/s2. This trend
may persist over the next couple hours, coincident with an increase
in the 850 mb flow. As such, the north-south oriented line of storms
that moved out of Kansas into MO is becoming more of a qlcs with swaths
of damaging wind and/or brief tornadoes possible.
To the south and closer to the warm front, cells over Arkansas are more
robust overall in terms of being instability driven with hail cores
evident on radar. Low-level shear is not as strong as farther north,
but a brief tornado cannot be ruled out with this activity.
.Jewell.. 08/19/2018
..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product...
Attention...WFO...Meg...lzk...sgf...tsa...
Latitude...Lon 35269249 35139403 35339419 35719416 36199421 36599432
37009432 37419435 37839434 38139256 38129247 37799186
37389149 36779125 36089124 35589154 35389189 35269249
